The banks are in the second half in Phase III of the financial crisis. The first phase was the acute drop of almost in a system crash would have ended. The second phase was to stabilize the industry by the policy since last autumn. The third phase will be the acid test for the industry: It is now necessary to show how well they work with the problems of the real economy is clear. It speaks a lot of evidence that it is experiencing a renewed slump. The will be but hopefully not as deep as in the previous course of the crisis.
Since the beginning of the year, the banks are several reasons why more developed than the dramatic crash of its stock prices in January would suggest. The most important point was to stabilize the system by the policy. Because it is clear that there is a second case, Lehman does not exist, have focused mainly on the investment-banking environment drastically changed.
After the U.S. government had rescued Lehman not, the problem was initially "Funding" in the foreground: Suddenly banks kings were those who complained about customer deposits largely self-financing could. The traditional investment banks, which are refinanced on the capital, seemed before from them. Since thanks to the government rescue plans back a minimum of confidence has returned, but can at least cash houses with good credit ratings also provide money on the capital. The business is continuing.
The second reason for the recovery is linked to the banks: they flood the system with money and ensure that it has become very cheap, to refinance. This has increased interest rate margins. The third reason for the recovery is the fact that the banks that are still strong, now better terms to their customers can enforce than in the past. The fourth reason is the recovery of the capital markets, their low points in the fourth quarter 2008 and first quarter of 2009 had. And the fifth reason, the efforts, problems with poisoned securities so to handle that at least in the short to medium term in the balance sheets are no longer visible.
These five factors are closely related to each other and are interdependent on each other part. The question is how far they are the banks in the second half of the year contributed. And hence, how much they contribute to the whole industry in the expected loan losses can form a counterweight.
What is clear is that just the traditional commercial banks, which a year ago because of its broad customer base, thereby lending even as the winners were, from the looming credit losses are most threatened. Because they go so over investment banks outside risk - ultimately government-backed - Financial sector: in the so-called real economy. How much these charges will be is hard to predict. In Germany, we are witnessing the strange situation that a record slump in the national product so far with relatively few Unternehmenspleiten and still relatively stable labor market observed.
Almost all experts expect that, at least on the labor market despite the initial positive signals yet burglaries take place. Even though the production stabilized or even recovered slightly, some firms will revise their plans at a lower level lower, where they need fewer employees.
Rising unemployment leads directly to problems with consumer credit. The play, for many banks have an important role, but in most houses is not the central business area. In addition, it can even failures in the private building loans given. But they are solid in Germany have been awarded than in many other countries. Also, there is no bubble in the real estate where.
Sure, the companies suffer if a growing unemployment, the consumption is decreasing. In addition, some really in an economic hole, if they have existing contracts will be processed and no business connection found. Nevertheless, it may well be that many companies are the "real" savings crisis by intercept and therefore not so much under pressure, such as economic statistics, this might suggest.
There are therefore problems in the "real" economy, but perhaps less than feared. On the other hand is open, how long the recovery factors of the first half of an impact yet. The artificially high margins will return to some form. The capital markets are again experiencing setbacks. And here and there are problems with displaced poisoned securities uncomfortable again come to the surface. This could be surprisingly bad news from abroad, fueling the crisis. The highly profitable Spanish banks, for example, have partly themselves to large-scale real estate purchased for to support the market. If this procedure totläuft, there should again be very unpleasant.
Ultimately, all depends on whether a negative feedback effect occurs. Such a downward spiral would mean weak companies, loan losses, credit terminal, more vulnerable companies. If the financial sector - even with the help of state development banks - able to break this vicious circle to avoid, then Phase III could run lenient.